The full card has moved again.
Uran Satybaldiev is no longer facing Dustin Jacoby, with Muhammad Said now stepping in. Two further bouts, Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev and Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein, have also appeared since the original Fight Lab research was completed.
Those three fights are excluded from this Betting Slate.
There is no value in pretending to have a confident opinion simply because a bookmaker has posted a price. The analysis was completed on the other ten matchups, so those are the only fights considered here.
This week’s slate contains five singles, one four-way moneyline parlay and one Hail Mary built around four decision predictions.
Total exposure is 6.00u.
Betting Slate summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg ML | 2.00 | 1.50u |
| Nurullo Aliev by decision | 2.05 | 1.00u |
| Magomed Ankalaev by decision | 4.25 | 1.00u |
| Valter Walker by submission | 2.35 | 0.75u |
| Ismael Bonfim by KO/TKO | 5.50 | 0.50u |
| Aliev, Kuniev, Walker and Ankalaev ML parlay | 3.42 | 1.00u |
| Four-way decision Hail Mary | 251.57 | 0.25u |
| Total exposure | 6.00u |
Core singles
Steve Erceg moneyline
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 1.50u
This is the strongest single on the slate.
Ramazan Temirov has looked dangerous during his unbeaten UFC start, but the market is giving almost equal weight to two very different bodies of work.
Erceg’s recent losses came against Alexandre Pantoja, Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno. That is not a normal losing run. It is a stretch against the hardest available opposition in the division.
He also owns the reach advantage and has already shown he can maintain his decision-making and output through five-round fights.
Temirov’s pressure and power are real. The danger comes if Erceg allows himself to be backed towards the fence and gives Temirov time to plant his feet.
The cleaner route belongs to Erceg.
Use the jab, keep the fight in open space and make Temirov repeatedly cross distance before he can begin his offence.
At even money, the price is too generous to ignore.
Pick: Steve Erceg ML
Stake: 1.50u
Nurullo Aliev by decision
Odds: 2.05
Stake: 1.00u
Mike Davis is the quicker striker and more explosive athlete.
Nurullo Aliev is the fighter more likely to decide where the bout takes place.
Aliev’s game is built around pressure, connected wrestling attempts and long periods of control. He does not need to create major damage from every position. He is willing to win minutes, force opponents to carry his weight and repeat the same sequence until the round belongs to him.
Davis has used more wrestling in recent appearances. Against many opponents, that makes him harder to prepare for.
Against Aliev, it risks pulling him into exactly the kind of fight the unbeaten lightweight wants.
Davis should use his grappling to escape, not to prove a point. Stop the entry, separate and make Aliev pay before the next attempt arrives.
The expectation is that Aliev closes the distance often enough to control large portions of the fight without creating a reliable finishing opportunity.
The moneyline at 1.44 offers very little. The decision price gives a better return for the fight most likely to unfold.
Pick: Nurullo Aliev by decision
Stake: 1.00u
Magomed Ankalaev by decision
Odds: 4.25
Stake: 1.00u
Magomed Ankalaev is the strongest winner prediction on the card.
His moneyline at 1.17 is still unplayable.
Bogdan Guskov has one obvious route. Pressure forward, attack the head and find the finish before Ankalaev takes control.
That early danger is exactly why the decision price is so large.
Ankalaev should have the tools to manage it. He is the more technical striker, can interrupt Guskov with clinch work and owns a wrestling game the late replacement must respect.
He does not need to wrestle for five rounds. A few takedown attempts or periods of control may be enough to slow Guskov’s pressure and remove some of the confidence behind his entries.
If Ankalaev survives the first ten minutes without absorbing major damage, the technical gap should become increasingly obvious.
Guskov is dangerous enough to make Ankalaev cautious. That caution may also make a controlled decision more likely than an aggressive finish.
At 4.25, the price properly rewards the risk.
Pick: Magomed Ankalaev by decision
Stake: 1.00u
Valter Walker by submission
Odds: 2.35
Stake: 0.75u
Thomas Petersen is probably the steadier fighter.
Valter Walker is the more dangerous finisher.
Petersen can wrestle consistently, maintain top position and produce the more dependable work over complete rounds. In a normal grappling matchup, that would make him the safer side.
Walker does not need to win a normal grappling matchup.
His recent run has been built around fast submissions, particularly leg attacks. Petersen may be controlling the fight until one scramble gives Walker access to the entanglement he needs.
That is the problem with leg-lock specialists. They can spend several minutes looking second best and still finish the fight before the opponent has time to realise what has gone wrong.
The longer this goes, the more it should favour Petersen.
The submission threat is still strong enough to take Walker at a method price that is only modestly longer than his moneyline.
Pick: Valter Walker by submission
Stake: 0.75u
Ismael Bonfim by KO/TKO
Odds: 5.50
Stake: 0.50u
This is the value play.
Axel Sola is the favourite because his wrestling gives him a clear route to control. Bonfim has conceded long periods of grappling control before, so the market’s concern is understandable.
The issue is what Sola must survive to reach those positions.
Bonfim is the more dangerous striker, throws the heavier combinations and is capable of punishing poorly prepared entries.
Sola may win minutes through wrestling.
Bonfim is more likely to create the decisive damage.
The moneyline at 2.80 is attractive, but the knockout price better reflects the reason for taking him. If Bonfim wins, the clearest route is hurting Sola before the grappling becomes established.
This is not a high-confidence position. It is a small stake at a price that appears too large for Bonfim’s best route.
Pick: Ismael Bonfim by KO/TKO
Stake: 0.50u
Four-way moneyline parlay
Aliev, Kuniev, Walker and Ankalaev
Combined odds: 3.42
Stake: 1.00u
The four-way parlay combines fighters expected to win whose individual moneylines offer little value on their own.
Nurullo Aliev at 1.44
The control route should be easier to repeat than Davis’s striking route.
Rizvan Kuniev at 1.32
Tyrell Fortune’s wrestling is dangerous early, but Kuniev appears better equipped to survive those exchanges and make him work repeatedly.
If Fortune slows, Kuniev should gradually take control through steadier striking and clinch work.
Valter Walker at 1.54
The submission single targets Walker’s clearest route. The parlay only asks him to win by any method.
Petersen may be the better minute winner, but Walker carries the more immediate finishing threat.
Magomed Ankalaev at 1.17
The price contributes very little to the parlay, but Ankalaev remains the strongest overall winner prediction.
The only obvious concern is repeated exposure.
Aliev, Walker and Ankalaev already appear in the singles section. One upset would damage more than one part of the slate.
That is why the parlay remains at 1.00u rather than becoming the centrepiece of the week.
Pick: Aliev, Kuniev, Walker and Ankalaev ML parlay
Odds: 3.42
Stake: 1.00u
Hail Mary
Erceg decision, Aliev decision, Ponzinibbio decision and Ankalaev decision
Combined odds: 251.57
Stake: 0.25u
This is a proper Hail Mary.
Not a disguised double with an optimistic name. Not a major part of the weekly exposure.
Four exact decision outcomes, including the boldest underdog call on the card.
Steve Erceg by decision at 2.75
The expectation is that Erceg’s length, experience and variety carry him through a competitive three-round fight.
Nurullo Aliev by decision at 2.05
Aliev should be able to control enough of the fight without creating a dependable finish.
Santiago Ponzinibbio by decision at 10.50
This is the leg that creates most of the price.
Sam Patterson is younger, longer and more dangerous early. Ponzinibbio’s route is to survive the opening exchanges, maintain activity and force Patterson to win complete rounds rather than chase a finish.
It is the lowest-confidence winner prediction on the ticket and the reason the stake is only 0.25u.
Magomed Ankalaev by decision at 4.25
Ankalaev should gradually take control after Guskov’s early threat begins to fade.
Four decisions must land together.
The potential return is huge because the chance of every part surviving is small.
That is exactly what this section is for.
Pick: Four-way decision Hail Mary
Odds: 251.57
Stake: 0.25u
No Bet
Three fights have been added or changed since the full Fight Lab research was completed:
- Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
- Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
- Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein
The previous analysis of Jacoby vs Uran Satybaldiev is no longer relevant.
None of these three fights are included in the Betting Slate or prediction record.
A late matchup can still offer value. That does not mean an opinion should be manufactured without completing the same assessment applied to the rest of the card.
Sometimes the sharpest call is simply leaving the fight alone.
Final Betting Slate
| Selection | Odds | Stake | Potential return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg ML | 2.00 | 1.50u | 3.00u |
| Nurullo Aliev by decision | 2.05 | 1.00u | 2.05u |
| Magomed Ankalaev by decision | 4.25 | 1.00u | 4.25u |
| Valter Walker by submission | 2.35 | 0.75u | 1.76u |
| Ismael Bonfim by KO/TKO | 5.50 | 0.50u | 2.75u |
| Aliev, Kuniev, Walker and Ankalaev ML parlay | 3.42 | 1.00u | 3.42u |
| Four-way decision Hail Mary | 251.57 | 0.25u | 62.89u |
| Total | 6.00u |
Erceg is the strongest bet on the slate.
Aliev, Ankalaev and Walker are the three method reads worth backing.
Bonfim is the price the market may have got wrong.
The four-way parlay gives the short favourites a reason to be on the page, and the Hail Mary is there because occasionally four fight scripts line up and the night gets stupid.
Six units on the table.
Now the fighters have to do their part.
Odds recorded from Bet365 and may move before fight night.
The Onchain Edge is independently produced and is not an official FX1 publication.
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