Every prediction eventually meets the result.
Results is the running record of The Onchain Edge’s published UFC predictions.
Fred’s record tracks the final call after the full matchup analysis. From UFC Shanghai onwards, the Winner Model is tracked alongside it, giving us a clean comparison between the statistical projection and the final human judgement.
Model results are not being backfilled into earlier events. The comparison starts from the point both predictions were published side by side.
FRED’S PREDICTION RECORD
EVENTS ANALYSED
9
WINNER PREDICTIONS
106
CORRECT WINNERS
64
WINNER ACCURACY
60.4%
Fred vs Model
Model tracking begins with UFC Shanghai. Earlier events remain part of Fred’s published record but are not retrospectively scored against the current Winner Model.
| Since UFC Shanghai | Correct | Picks | Accuracy |
| Fred | 16 | 27 | 59.3% |
| The Winner Model | 17 | 27 | 63.0% |
Event-by-event record
| Event | Fred | Fred Accuracy | Model | Model Accuracy | After the Bell |
| Hooker vs Parnasse | 8/14 | 57.1% | 8/14 | 57.1% | Analysis➔ |
| Nurmagomedov vs Song | 8/13 | 61.5% | 9/13 | 69.2% | Analysis➔ |
| Hernandez vs Rodrigues | 8/13 | 61.5% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
| Makhachev vs Machado Garry | 5/12 | 41.7% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
| Gamrot vs Salkilld | 9/12 | 75.0% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
| Medić vs Rodriguez | 5/7 | 71.4% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
| Ankalaev vs Guskov | 6/9 | 66.7% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
| Du Plessis vs Usman | 8/12 | 66.7% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
| McGregor vs Holloway 2 | 7/14 | 50.0% | — | — | Analysis➔ |
For the analysis behind each event, follow the After the Bell links above.
The Onchain Edge is independently produced and is not an official FX1 publication