Every published prediction eventually meets the result.
The Onchain Edge tracks UFC winner predictions across every analysed event, recording both THE MODEL and FINAL PICK wherever both were published.
The Model provides the statistical prediction. The Final Pick represents the published editorial selection. Where they disagree, both remain on the record.
Results are recorded using completed fights with an official winner. Draws and cancelled bouts are excluded from winner-accuracy calculations.
The numbers below cover every eligible prediction in the published record.
THE MODEL RECORD
MODEL TRACKED EVENTS
9
WINNER PREDICTIONS
115
CORRECT WINNERS
64
WINNER ACCURACY
55.7%
The Model Record includes every Winner Model prediction published before the corresponding fight.
No retrospective predictions are added to the results.
MODEL VS FINAL EDGE
Across the same 115-fight sample:
| Correct | Picks | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Model | 64 | 115 | 55.7% |
| Final Edge Pick | 65 | 115 | 56.5% |
Edge Pick advantage: +1 correct winners
The Final Edge Pick is not designed simply to agree with the model.
It tests whether additional fight analysis improves the statistical baseline once style, tape, recent performances and opponent interaction are brought into the decision.
Sometimes it does.
Sometimes the model had the better read.
Tracking both is how we find out which is which.
LATEST EVENT: UFC 333
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · 24 October 2026 · Abu Dhabi
| UFC 332 | Correct | Picks | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Model | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
| Final Edge Pick | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
The Final Pick finished four winners ahead of The Model across UFC 333.
All four winner disagreements landed: Petr Yan over Merab Dvalishvili, Abus Magomedov over Cam Rowston, Abubakar Vagaev over Jacob Malkoun and Kody Steele over Noah Gugnon.
For the full fight-by-fight review, read After the Bell: Still Volkanovski’s Division.
Edge Games
Sharc Attack won UFC 333 with 39 points, finding 11 of the 14 winners and landing six perfect winner-and-method calls.
Lman also picked 11 winners and finished one point behind on 38, while Fred completed the podium with 37 points.
SEASON ZERO
After four events, MTomps leads Season Zero with 117 points, one ahead of Fred and three ahead of Lman.
Five events remain.
MODEL-TRACKED EVENTS
| Event | Winner Model | Accuracy | Final Edge | Accuracy | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev | 5/14 | 35.7% | 9/14 | 64.3% | ANALYSIS → |
| Buckley vs Malott | 6/13 | 46.2% | 5/13 | 38.5% | ANALYSIS → |
| Allen vs Duncan | 5/11 | 45.5% | 8/11 | 72.7% | ANALYSIS → |
| UFC 332: Silva vs Wang | 13/14 | 92.9% | 8/14 | 57.1% | ANALYSIS → |
| Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos | 4/11 | 36.4% | 3/11 | 27.3% | ANALYSIS → |
| UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 | 5/12 | 41.7% | 5/12 | 41.7% | ANALYSIS → |
| Silva vs Delgado | 9/13 | 69.2% | 11/13 | 84.6% | ANALYSIS → |
| Hooker vs Parnasse | 8/14 | 57.1% | 8/14 | 57.1% | ANALYSIS → |
| Nurmagomedov vs Song | 9/13 | 69.2% | 8/13 | 61.5% | ANALYSIS → |
| TOTAL | 64/115 | 55.7% | 65/115 | 56.5% |
Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos is graded across 11 fights after the scheduled Dumas vs Gall bout was removed following Mickey Gall’s withdrawal.
Allen vs Duncan is graded across 11 fights despite all 12 bouts taking place. Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto ended in a majority draw and was excluded from winner-accuracy calculations, as neither fighter was declared the winner.
FULL PUBLISHED RECORD
The full record contains every published Final Edge winner prediction across the events tracked by The Onchain Edge.
Where a Winner Model prediction was also published, it appears alongside the Final Edge result.
| Event | Final Edge | Accuracy | Winner Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev | 9/14 | 64.3% | 5/14 |
| Buckley vs Malott | 5/13 | 38.5% | 6/13 |
| Allen vs Duncan | 8/11 | 72.7% | 5/11 |
| UFC 332: Silva vs Wang | 8/14 | 57.1% | 13/14 |
| Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos | 3/11 | 27.3% | 4/11 |
| UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 | 5/12 | 41.7% | 5/12 |
| Silva vs Delgado | 11/13 | 84.6% | 9/13 |
| Hooker vs Parnasse | 8/14 | 57.1% | 8/14 |
| Nurmagomedov vs Song | 8/13 | 61.5% | 9/13 |
| Hernandez vs Rodrigues | 8/13 | 61.5% | — |
| Makhachev vs Machado Garry | 5/12 | 41.7% | — |
| Gamrot vs Salkilld | 9/12 | 75.0% | — |
| Medić vs Rodriguez | 5/7 | 71.4% | — |
| Ankalaev vs Guskov | 6/9 | 66.7% | — |
| Du Plessis vs Usman | 8/12 | 66.7% | — |
| McGregor vs Holloway 2 | 7/14 | 50.0% | — |
FINAL EDGE RECORD
EVENTS ANALYSED
16
WINNER PREDICTIONS
194
CORRECT WINNERS
113
WINNER ACCURACY
58.2%
The Winner Model and Final Edge records are kept as separate samples so each figure reflects only predictions published before the fights took place.
WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE FOR
The results provide a straightforward record of how The Onchain Edge performs across UFC events. Every eligible winner prediction counts, whether it was right or wrong, with The Model and Final Pick tracked separately.
Individual events can produce big swings, so the longer-term record is more useful than any single weekend. Accuracy tells us how often the predictions land, but not necessarily how well a fight was read.
That’s where After the Bell comes in. The numbers record the outcome. The post-fight reviews explore what actually happened, which predictions held up and which fights exposed something we missed.
The Onchain Edge is independently produced and is not an official FX1 publication