This is a difficult card to price.

There are plenty of fighters I expect to win, but far fewer moneylines I actually want to back. Several favourites are sitting at prices that leave almost no room for the fight becoming more competitive than expected.

That is why this week’s Betting Slate is lighter than usual.

The total exposure is 4.00u, well below the normal 6u to 8u range. That is deliberate. A weekly target should provide structure, not become an excuse to manufacture bets when the value is not there.

One position accounts for 37.5% of the slate. That would normally be more concentrated than I want, but it is partly a consequence of being restrained everywhere else. The card has produced one bet I am willing to back properly, two smaller method plays and several low-stake combinations.

The strongest opinion is not simply that Dricus Du Plessis wins.

It is that Kamaru Usman can make the early rounds competitive, but the physical cost eventually opens the door to a Du Plessis stoppage.

Betting Slate at a glance

Bet	Odds	Stake
Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO	3.10 (+210)	1.50u
Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO	3.65 (+265)	0.75u
Fatima Kline by KO/TKO	5.75 (+475)	0.25u
Kline, Hooper and Ko all to win	2.36 (+136)	0.75u
Bashi, Elliott and Duncan all to win	4.84 (+384)	0.25u
Du Plessis, Duncan, Kline, Hooper and Ko all to win	4.28 (+328)	0.25u
Five-leg Hail Mary	105.77 (+10,477)	0.25u

Total staked: 4.00u

Core singles

Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO

Odds: 3.10 (+210)
Stake: 1.50u

Du Plessis is the correct favourite, but his 1.43 moneyline is not attractive enough.

Usman still owns the right weapon to make this difficult. Du Plessis has defended only 34% of the takedowns attempted against him across his UFC career, and Khamzat Chimaev showed how effectively sustained wrestling can remove his offence.

Usman is not Chimaev. He does not carry the same submission threat, explosiveness or ability to transition relentlessly between dominant positions. He is also 39, moving up against a younger natural middleweight who turns almost every exchange into physical work.

The recent trend in Usman’s performances matters. He is attempting more takedowns, but producing less efficient control. He can still force the grappling phase, but he is working harder to maintain it.

That gives him a credible route through the first ten minutes. It also creates the conditions for the fight to swing sharply once his entries slow and Du Plessis begins finding more space.

Du Plessis does not need perfect takedown defence. He needs to force repeated attempts, make Usman carry his weight and attack after every separation. The longer the contest lasts, the more those exchanges should favour the bigger and younger fighter.

The outright favourite price does not properly reward that read.

The KO/TKO market does.

The bet: 1.50u on Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO at 3.10 (+210).

Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO

Odds: 3.65 (+265)
Stake: 0.75u

McMillen is available at 1.60 on the moneyline, but the finish price is where the interest lies.

Alberto Montes has enough offensive threat to stop this becoming a straightforward favourite position. The available UFC sample is also limited, which is why this stays below a full unit.

McMillen’s best route is still the one that creates the better price. He should be able to push a pace, force exchanges and find openings as Montes becomes less comfortable under pressure.

The moneyline offers protection against a decision. It also strips away most of the value.

At 3.65, the stoppage is worth backing directly.

The bet: 0.75u on Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO at 3.65 (+265).

Fatima Kline by KO/TKO

Odds: 5.75 (+475)
Stake: 0.25u

The safest prediction is Fatima Kline to win.

She is younger, taller, longer and capable of competing with Tabatha Ricci in the wrestling phase where Ricci normally creates her best work.

The obvious method prediction is Kline by decision. I am not convinced that 1.58 offers enough upside for requiring such a specific result.

Ricci’s takedown activity and control have declined. Against Kline, failed entries could leave her underneath a younger and more physical opponent who is comfortable maintaining top position.

That creates a plausible ground-and-pound route which may be underestimated by the method market.

This is not a core position. Kline can win a clear decision without ever seriously threatening a stoppage.

At 5.75, the possibility is worth a small bet.

The bet: 0.25u on Fatima Kline by KO/TKO at 5.75 (+475).

Parlays

Fatima Kline, Chase Hooper and Seokhyeon Ko all to win

Odds: 2.36 (+136)
Stake: 0.75u

None of these three moneylines is particularly attractive alone:

• Fatima Kline at 1.22
• Chase Hooper at 1.27
• Seokhyeon Ko at 1.52

Together, they produce a price that is worth considering.

Kline has the physical and tactical advantages against Ricci. Hooper owns the clearer grappling route against Mitch Ramirez. Ko is the more trusted side against Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani and should be able to win enough of the cleaner minutes.

This is the strongest of the parlays, but it remains below one unit. Three favourites do not become safe simply because they share one ticket.

The bet: 0.75u on Kline, Hooper and Ko all to win at 2.36 (+136).

Austin Bashi, Ezra Elliott and Christian Leroy Duncan all to win

Odds: 4.84 (+384)
Stake: 0.25u

Austin Bashi is not strong enough to back as a single.

He has the correct style to trouble Jose Miguel Delgado, but his UFC-level sample is too small to assume he can impose his wrestling consistently against a dangerous open-space striker.

This parlay gives the Bashi lean a place without pretending it carries core-single confidence.

Ezra Elliott supplies much of the price. Christian Leroy Duncan is the steadier leg, although Jared Cannonier’s increased wrestling makes his fight less comfortable than the moneyline suggests.

This is a small value combination, not a cornerstone of the slate.

The bet: 0.25u on Bashi, Elliott and Duncan all to win at 4.84 (+384).

Du Plessis, Duncan, Kline, Hooper and Ko all to win

Odds: 4.28 (+328)
Stake: 0.25u

This is the straightforward winner parlay.

All five fighters are picks to win their respective matchups:

• Dricus Du Plessis
• Christian Leroy Duncan
• Fatima Kline
• Chase Hooper
• Seokhyeon Ko

The individual prices are too short to build the slate around. Combining them gives the card thesis a better return, but one upset removes the entire bet.

That is why the stake stays small.

The bet: 0.25u on all five fighters to win at 4.28 (+328).

The Hail Mary

Odds: 105.77 (+10,477)
Stake: 0.25u

• Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO at 3.65
• Alvin Hines by KO/TKO at 3.00
• Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO at 3.10
• Ezra Elliott to win at 2.05
• Seokhyeon Ko to win at 1.52

This is exactly what the Hail Mary section is supposed to be: small stake, aggressive reads and a return large enough to justify the difficulty.

Three legs require a KO or TKO, so this is heavily dependent on the card producing the right kind of violence.

McMillen and Du Plessis are already backed individually. Hines is the additional swing.

RJ Harris is available at 2.00, with Hines narrowly favoured at 1.83. The 3.00 KO/TKO price offers a more interesting way to back Hines’ power than laying a short number in a competitive fight.

Elliott and Ko complete the ticket through their moneylines rather than adding two more method requirements.

The bet: 0.25u on the five-leg Hail Mary at 105.77 (+10,477).

Exposure and structure

This slate is more concentrated than the normal weekly model.

The Du Plessis stoppage accounts for 1.50u of the 4.00u total, or 37.5% of the weekly risk.

That figure looks aggressive in isolation. The context matters.

The position has not been increased because the rest of the card demanded more exposure. It represents a larger share because the slate has been cut back elsewhere. There was no reason to force the total towards 6u or 8u when so many favourites were priced too short and several lower-card fights carried limited UFC evidence.

There is also some deliberate duplication:

• Du Plessis appears in the core single, the five-leg moneyline parlay and the Hail Mary.
• Kline, Hooper and Ko appear in two parlays.
• Duncan appears in both the value treble and the five-leg moneyline parlay.
• McMillen, Elliott and Ko also feature in the Hail Mary.

The important distinction is that most of the repeated exposure comes through bets of only 0.25u.

A loss from one of the favoured fighters can still damage several tickets, but the slate is not relying on those parlays for its core return. The two main positions remain Du Plessis and McMillen to win by stoppage.

Final word

There are several fighters on this card I expect to win.

That does not mean their moneylines are worth buying.

The Betting Slate is built around two method prices that offer genuine upside, one speculative Kline finish and three small parlays designed to improve otherwise unattractive favourite prices.

The total exposure is lower than usual because the card demands restraint.

That is not a weakness in the slate.

Sometimes the edge is recognising where not to put the extra units.

Odds were checked before publication and may move before the event.

These are the bets I have chosen to place, not recommendations. Make your own decisions, only risk what you can afford to lose and treat betting as entertainment.
The Onchain Edge is independently produced and is not an official FX1 publication.