UFC 329 is exactly the kind of card that can tempt you into betting the story rather than the fight.
Conor McGregor’s return after five years will dominate the attention. It is the comeback, the rivalry and the possibility of one more spectacular moment. It is also one of the most uncertain situations on the entire card.
Elsewhere, the narratives are less dramatic but the matchups may be more useful. Paddy Pimblett is being treated as though Benoît Saint Denis can simply overwhelm him with pressure. Robert Whittaker is the favourite against an opponent who will be considerably larger and more dangerous in the grappling exchanges. Several other short-priced favourites look likely to win, but not necessarily at odds worth taking.
Every fight receives a pick below, but not every pick deserves a bet. The deeper analysis is reserved for the matchups where the available data gives us something meaningful to work with. The rest of the card is covered more briefly, particularly where the UFC sample is too small to justify false confidence.
Event Snapshot
| EVENT | UFC 329:McGregor vs Holloway 2 |
| Date | 11 July 2026 |
| Total fights | 14 |
| Data source | FX1 pre-fight dataset |
| Data extracted | 9 July 2026 |
| Odds sourced | Bet365, captured 9 July 2026 |
The card contains one five-round main event and 13 three-round contests.
The Onchain Edge Quick Picks
| Fight | Pick | Method Lean | Read Strength | Betting Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway | Max Holloway | KO/TKO | Strong | Core candidate |
| Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett | Paddy Pimblett | Decision | Moderate | Value candidate |
| Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista | Cory Sandhagen | Decision | Moderate | Secondary candidate |
| Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh | Lone’er Kavanagh | Decision | Moderate | Pass |
| King Green vs Terrance McKinney | Terrance McKinney | KO/TKO | Speculative | Longshot only |
| Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker | Nikita Krylov | Inside the distance | Strong | Core candidate |
| Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison | Gable Steveson | KO/TKO | Limited Data | Pass |
| Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez | Adrian Yanez | KO/TKO | Strong | Secondary candidate |
| Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III | Kai Kamaka III | Decision | Speculative | Watchlist |
| Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong | Tracy Cortez | Decision | Moderate | Secondary candidate |
| Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida | Damian Pinas | KO/TKO | Limited Data | Small interest |
| Farid Basharat vs John Garza | Farid Basharat | Decision | Moderate | Pass |
| Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese | Zach Reese | Submission | Limited Data | Pass |
| Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden | Alessandro Costa | KO/TKO | Moderate | Small interest |
The Fights That Shape the Card
Main Event: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
Official pick: Max Holloway
Method lean: KO/TKO
Read strength: Strong
Best current angle: Holloway by KO/TKO at 1.86
Longshot angle: Holloway by KO/TKO in round four at 9.50
The Matchup
Thirteen years after their first meeting, McGregor and Holloway meet again under completely different circumstances.
McGregor is now 37 and returning from a five-year absence. The fight is taking place at welterweight, adding another variable to an already difficult comeback to assess. Holloway has remained active and accumulated far more recent high-level cage time, but he must still navigate McGregor’s speed, timing and power during the opening rounds.
The temptation is to treat this as the same basic matchup with two older fighters. It is not.
The first fight happened before Holloway had developed into the relentless volume striker who later dominated the featherweight division. It also happened before McGregor had experienced the injuries, inactivity and physical changes that now make his conditioning almost impossible to price confidently.
McGregor’s route remains clear. He must control the early distance, discourage Holloway from building momentum and make his power count while the fight is still taking place at his preferred tempo.
What the Numbers Say
McGregor retains the more dangerous early finishing profile.
He has a substantial reach advantage, 74 inches against Holloway’s 69, and his historical knockdown rate works out at approximately 1.74 per 15 minutes. Holloway’s equivalent rate is only around 0.34.
That difference matters. McGregor does not need to match Holloway’s total output if he can make the opening exchanges sufficiently damaging.
The longer the fight lasts, however, the numbers begin to favour Holloway heavily.
Holloway averages approximately 6.91 significant strikes landed per minute, compared with McGregor’s 5.32. His average fight duration is also more than twice as long, approximately 16.65 minutes against 8.04.
Those numbers reflect the central problem McGregor must solve. Holloway is built to maintain output long after the opening exchanges have passed.
The Key Question
Can McGregor either finish Holloway or do enough damage in the first ten minutes to prevent the fight becoming a volume contest?
If McGregor remains sharp, composed and economical, the reach advantage gives him opportunities to intercept Holloway’s entries. He does not need to chase the finish recklessly. He can make Holloway pay for every attempt to close the distance.
If he is forced to work continuously, defend combinations and reset under pressure, the absence becomes increasingly difficult to ignore.
Holloway’s real advantage may not be one individual strike or technical position. It may simply be his ability to keep asking the same physical question until McGregor can no longer provide the same answer.
The Read
McGregor is live early, particularly while he can dictate the distance and select his attacks. I do not trust that advantage to survive across five rounds.
Holloway should gradually increase the pace, attack the body and force longer exchanges. Once McGregor is made to work at a rate he has not experienced in years, the fight begins to look less like a technical striking contest and more like an attritional one.
The first ten minutes belong to McGregor’s threat. The final fifteen increasingly belong to Holloway’s pressure.
Official pick: Max Holloway by KO/TKO, most likely in rounds four or five.
Betting Angle
Holloway is 1.47 on the moneyline and 1.86 by KO or TKO.
The moneyline is difficult to dislike, but it offers little protection against the uncertainty surrounding the opening rounds. At 1.86, the finish price better reflects the way Holloway is most likely to turn the fight decisively in his favour.
The round markets are also interesting:
- Holloway by KO/TKO in round four: 9.50
- Holloway by KO/TKO in round five: 12.00
Both are plausible, but they are too specific for a major stake. The broader KO/TKO price at 1.86 is the stronger core angle.
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
Official pick: Paddy Pimblett
Method lean: Decision
Read strength: Moderate
Best current angle: Pimblett by decision at 5.50
Pimblett moneyline: 2.20
The Matchup
On paper, this looks like a fight built for Saint Denis.
He pressures relentlessly, attempts takedowns in volume and has historically spent large portions of his fights in control. Pimblett is often hittable, can concede early position and has occasionally relied on his toughness to escape situations he would have preferred to avoid.
That is the obvious reading. It is also why the price on Paddy has become interesting.
Saint Denis has generated those control numbers against opponents who have not all possessed Pimblett’s level of grappling. The data tells us how much control he has accumulated. It does not tell us how safely that control transfers against an opponent who is genuinely dangerous during transitions.
Paddy is not simply another fighter Saint Denis can put on his back and hold there.
He attacks during scrambles, recognises submission opportunities quickly and is comfortable enough in chaotic positions that Saint Denis may find his usual pressure creating danger in both directions.
What the Numbers Say
The striking numbers are much closer than the public perception of the two fighters might suggest.
Saint Denis lands approximately 5.62 significant strikes per minute. Pimblett lands around 5.49. They also have the same listed reach at 73 inches.
The major statistical difference comes through the grappling:
| Metric | Saint Denis | Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed per 15 minutes | 4.19 | 0.69 |
| Takedowns attempted per 15 minutes | 11.69 | 3.26 |
| Submission attempts per 15 minutes | 1.74 | 1.21 |
| Historical control percentage | 47.6% | 20.3% |
| Average fight duration | 7.16 minutes | 10.94 minutes |
Those figures clearly show what Saint Denis wants to do. They do not guarantee he will be able to do it cleanly here.
Historical control time is not opponent-adjusted. It should be treated as evidence of Saint Denis’ style and output, not proof that Paddy will spend the fight trapped underneath him.
The Key Question
Can Saint Denis turn his pressure into safe, sustained control without exposing himself during the scrambles?
If he can, he probably wins. He can bank rounds through takedowns, top position and damage while Paddy is forced to react.
If Pimblett repeatedly escapes, reverses position or makes Saint Denis defend submissions, the fight changes. Saint Denis may still be initiating the exchanges, but initiation and control are not the same thing.
Paddy’s path does not require him to dominate the grappling. He needs to make it competitive enough that Saint Denis cannot simply accumulate uncontested minutes.
The Read
Saint Denis is likely to begin faster. He may win the opening round through urgency, pressure and physicality.
The question is what that opening pace costs him.
Pimblett has the longer average fight duration and the grappling ability to remain dangerous even when he is initially placed in poor positions. If he survives the first wave without absorbing too much damage, the exchanges should become less comfortable for Saint Denis.
Paddy can begin finding cleaner work as the pace settles, force Saint Denis to think more carefully about his entries and turn the later rounds into a much closer contest than the favourite’s price suggests.
He does not need to overwhelm Saint Denis. He needs to survive the opening pressure and win two rounds.
Official pick: Paddy Pimblett by decision.
Betting Angle
Paddy is 2.20 to win and 5.50 by decision.
The moneyline implies that Paddy wins roughly 45% of the time before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin. The decision price implies a probability of only around 18%.
That leaves enough room for the bet to be interesting.
A submission is certainly possible, but a decision fits the broader fight shape. Saint Denis is difficult to finish, Paddy has shown he can remain competitive deep into fights, and both men may have enough grappling awareness to prevent the other from completing the clean submission sequence.
Paddy Pimblett by decision at 5.50 is one of the clearest value positions on the card.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Official pick: Cory Sandhagen
Method lean: Decision
Read strength: Moderate
Best current angle: Sandhagen by decision at 2.70
Fight to go the distance: 1.44
The Matchup
Sandhagen and Bautista first met in 2019, when Sandhagen submitted Bautista in the opening round of his UFC debut.
That result is part of the story, but it is not a particularly useful guide to the rematch.
Bautista is now a far more experienced and complete fighter. His pressure is more organised, his wrestling is better integrated into his striking and he is far less likely to give Sandhagen the same kind of early opportunity.
This version of the matchup should be competitive.
Bautista’s route is built around removing space. He needs to crowd Sandhagen, back him towards the fence and turn a creative striking contest into a series of shorter, more physical exchanges.
Sandhagen wants the opposite. He needs room to switch stances, change angles and produce offence while Bautista is still trying to establish his position.
What the Numbers Say
Bautista lands slightly more significant strikes per minute, approximately 5.30 against Sandhagen’s 4.86.
He also produces more takedowns:
| Metric | Sandhagen | Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landed per minute | 4.86 | 5.30 |
| Takedowns landed per 15 minutes | 1.14 | 1.92 |
| Takedowns attempted per 15 minutes | 3.31 | 4.99 |
| Historical control percentage | 20.1% | 23.1% |
| Average fight duration | 14.72 minutes | 10.10 minutes |
Sandhagen holds the physical advantages. He is around five centimetres taller, has a slightly longer reach and has historically spent more time operating in extended contests.
That last point matters. Bautista can make rounds difficult, but Sandhagen has repeatedly been asked to solve tactical problems over longer periods.
The Key Question
Can Sandhagen continue producing meaningful offence while Bautista is forcing him backwards?
Movement alone will not win the rounds. If Sandhagen spends too much time circling away without landing, Bautista’s forward pressure and clinch control may become more visible to the judges.
Sandhagen must make Bautista pay for closing the distance. He needs to score during the entries, not merely reset after them.
The Read
Bautista should have success forcing Sandhagen towards the fence. He should complete takedowns, create clinch exchanges and make several rounds genuinely close.
Sandhagen remains the more varied striker.
His ability to change stance, attack different targets and land while moving should allow him to produce the cleaner moments. He does not need to stop Bautista from pressuring entirely. He needs to ensure Bautista is paying a price each time he tries.
The market already expects the fight to reach the judges. That feels correct.
Official pick: Cory Sandhagen by decision.
Betting Angle
Sandhagen is 1.74 to win and 2.70 by decision. The fight itself is only 1.44 to go the distance.
If the read is that Sandhagen wins a long, tactical fight, there is little reason to settle for the shorter moneyline.
Sandhagen by decision at 2.70 is the more logical way to back him.
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
Official pick: Nikita Krylov
Method lean: Inside the distance
Read strength: Strong
Krylov moneyline: 2.15
Best current angle: Krylov to win and the fight not to go the distance at 3.30
The Matchup
Whittaker is the more polished fighter.
He is faster, more disciplined at distance and far more comfortable in a conventional kickboxing contest. If this fight takes place in open space, with both men exchanging at range, Whittaker should be able to land first and leave before Krylov can establish contact.
The difficulty is that Krylov does not need to give him that fight.
He has the larger frame, a four-inch reach advantage and a much more aggressive grappling profile. The matchup may therefore be less about whether Krylov can outstrike Whittaker and more about whether Whittaker can prevent Krylov from turning every striking exchange into something heavier and less comfortable.
The market appears to be pricing the more recognisable and technically refined fighter. It may not be giving enough weight to the physical matchup.
What the Numbers Say
Their historical striking rates are almost identical.
Whittaker lands approximately 4.39 significant strikes per minute. Krylov lands 4.36.
The separation appears elsewhere:
| Metric | Krylov | Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Reach | 77.5in | 73.5in |
| Takedowns landed per 15 minutes | 2.04 | 0.74 |
| Takedowns attempted per 15 minutes | 5.53 | 1.93 |
| Submission attempts per 15 minutes | 1.23 | 0.00 |
| Historical control percentage | 36.5% | 8.2% |
| Average fight duration | 6.97 minutes | 13.61 minutes |
Whittaker’s longer average fight duration reflects his ability to operate through extended technical contests.
Krylov’s shorter duration reflects volatility. He is far more likely to create a fight that ends before the scorecards become relevant.
The Key Question
Can Whittaker keep the fight clean?
If he defends the first takedown attempt, escapes the clinch and forces Krylov to repeatedly reset at distance, his speed should become increasingly important.
If Krylov secures early contact, Whittaker will be asked to carry a larger opponent, defend submission transitions and absorb damage in positions he does not usually encounter against middleweights.
Krylov does not need long periods of elegant control. He needs enough positional success to make Whittaker hesitant about committing fully to his striking.
The Read
Whittaker can win this fight by being the better technician.
Krylov can win it by refusing to let technique remain the only thing that matters.
The reach, size, takedown activity and submission threat create several credible paths for the underdog. Whittaker may win the early striking exchanges, but every clinch and scramble introduces a different kind of danger.
At the available price, Krylov has too many ways to make this an uncomfortable fight.
Official pick: Nikita Krylov inside the distance.
Betting Angle
Krylov is 2.15 on the moneyline.
Bet365 also offers a Bet Builder combining:
- Nikita Krylov to win
- Fight not to go the distance
The direct Bet Builder price is 3.30.
That covers both the KO/TKO and submission routes without forcing us to choose between them. Krylov is 4.50 by KO/TKO and 8.50 by submission individually, but the combined inside-distance builder provides the broader and more attractive position.
Around the Rest of the Card
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh by decision
Read strength: Moderate
Bet365 price: 2.40
Betting interest: Pass
Royval has built a career around making fights messier than they appear on paper.
He lands more significant strikes than Kavanagh and creates substantially more submission activity. He is also willing to accept positions that most fighters would avoid, because he trusts himself to find offence during the transition.
That willingness is both his greatest strength and his recurring weakness.
Kavanagh’s path is less dramatic. He needs to maintain distance, avoid being drawn into unnecessary scrambles and make Royval work through structured exchanges rather than chaos. His average fight duration is considerably longer, and he has historically spent more time controlling the shape of the contest.
The pick is Kavanagh by decision, but Royval’s unpredictability makes 2.40 less appealing than it initially looks.
King Green vs Terrance McKinney
Pick: Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO
Read strength: Speculative
Bet365 price: 2.80
Betting interest: Longshot only
This fight is almost a race between McKinney’s opening explosion and Green’s ability to make him fight beyond it.
McKinney’s rate statistics look extraordinary because his fights are exceptionally short. His average contest in the supplied data lasts just over two minutes. That makes his striking, knockdown and takedown rates mathematically impressive but difficult to treat as stable.
The matchup itself remains clear. McKinney will attack immediately and carries enough power to punish Green before the older fighter has established his timing.
Green becomes increasingly likely to win with every minute that passes.
The market expects violence, pricing the fight at only 1.055 not to go the distance. McKinney by KO/TKO at 2.80 is the pick, but the volatility keeps it out of the core card.
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
Pick: Gable Steveson by KO/TKO
Read strength: Limited data
Bet365 price: 1.25
Betting interest: No bet
Sometimes the most useful conclusion from the data is that the data cannot tell us very much.
Steveson has no recorded UFC activity in the supplied averages. Ellison’s statistical sample is also extremely small. Any attempt to compare their rate statistics would create an illusion of precision where none exists.
Steveson is the clear pick, but a 1.04 moneyline and 1.25 KO/TKO price leave no room for the uncertainty.
This is a prediction, not a bet.
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
Pick: Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO
Read strength: Strong
Bet365 price: 1.86
Betting interest: Secondary candidate
Both men are dangerous enough to end the fight with one clean exchange.
Yanez should have more opportunities to create that exchange.
He holds a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and lands approximately 5.96 significant strikes per minute. Garbrandt lands only 2.79. Yanez also carries the higher historical knockdown rate.
Garbrandt still has speed, power and enough wrestling ability to give Yanez different looks. His route is to remain disciplined, avoid extended boxing exchanges and make Yanez think about more than his hands.
That has not always been the kind of fight Garbrandt chooses to have.
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO at 1.86 is one of the better secondary finish angles on the card.
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
Pick: Kai Kamaka III by decision
Read strength: Speculative
Bet365 price: 4.90
Betting interest: Watchlist
Riley may be every bit as good as his unbeaten record suggests.
The question is whether the price has reached that conclusion before the sample has earned it.
His striking numbers are strong, but the available UFC data remains limited. Kamaka has the deeper record, lands at a very similar rate and brings a meaningful wrestling advantage.
Kamaka averages approximately 1.51 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has historically controlled close to 22% of his fight time. Riley has yet to record a takedown in the supplied sample.
Riley may simply be too sharp and too dangerous on the feet. At 4.90, however, Kamaka by decision offers enough compensation to deserve consideration.
It remains a speculative angle rather than a core selection.
Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong
Pick: Tracy Cortez by decision
Read strength: Moderate
Bet365 price: 2.30
Betting interest: Secondary candidate
This is one of the clearest style clashes on the card.
Wang wants clean space. She lands approximately 6.22 significant strikes per minute, produces considerably more knockdowns and attacks the body and legs effectively at range.
Cortez wants those minutes to disappear against the fence or on the mat.
She averages around 2.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has historically controlled nearly 35% of her average fight time. Wang’s control figure is only around 6%.
The market has priced both women at 1.90, which suggests it sees the matchup as almost perfectly balanced.
The deciding factor may be whether Cortez can interrupt Wang’s striking rhythm before she begins building combinations. I believe she can do it often enough to win the positional minutes and take the scorecards.
Tracy Cortez by decision at 2.30 is the preferred angle.
Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida
Pick: Damian Pinas by KO/TKO
Read strength: Limited data
Bet365 price: 1.90
Betting interest: Small only
Pinas has the kind of profile that produces attractive numbers very quickly.
He is 14 years younger, has a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and recorded two knockdowns in the available sample.
The problem is that the sample lasts only around two and a half minutes.
Two knockdowns look like an exceptional rate statistic, but they are really one short performance. It would be a mistake to treat them as an established long-term average.
Almeida has considerably more recorded cage time and enough striking experience to punish Pinas if the younger fighter becomes reckless.
The physical advantages still point towards Pinas, most likely by KO/TKO. The limited sample prevents the 1.90 price from becoming a larger bet.
Farid Basharat vs John Garza
Pick: Farid Basharat by decision
Read strength: Moderate
Bet365 price: 2.30
Betting interest: Pass
Basharat should control this fight.
He averages approximately 3.34 successful takedowns per 15 minutes and has historically spent more than 37% of his average fight time in control. His unbeaten record and ability to win minutes make him one of the more reliable favourites on the card.
The difficulty is the market.
Basharat is only 1.16 to win. Garza has no usable UFC statistical sample in the supplied dataset, which means we would be accepting an extremely short price without being able to measure the opponent properly.
The decision price at 2.30 fits Basharat’s historical profile better than the 2.40 submission price. He averages more than 13 minutes per fight and has not produced a particularly high submission-attempt rate.
Basharat by decision is the pick, but the missing Garza data makes it a pass.
Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese
Pick: Zach Reese by submission
Read strength: Limited data
Bet365 price: 5.50
Betting interest: Pass
Gandra’s supplied averages cover approximately 41 seconds.
That is not a meaningful statistical sample. His apparent striking and knockdown rates should be ignored rather than celebrated.
Reese has the deeper record and offers more visible grappling routes. He averages approximately 2.83 completed takedowns and 1.27 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
The submission price at 5.50 is interesting in isolation, but there is too much uncertainty around Gandra to justify turning it into a published wager.
Reese by submission is the pick. The betting decision is to leave it alone.
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden
Pick: Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO
Read strength: Moderate
Bet365 price: 3.00
Betting interest: Small only
This matchup is likely to be decided by which man establishes his preferred fight first.
Costa carries the more dangerous striking profile. His historical knockdown rate is around 0.95 per 15 minutes, compared with only 0.09 for Durden.
Durden brings the wrestling.
He averages almost four successful takedowns per 15 minutes and has historically controlled around 38% of his fight time. Costa’s control figure is below 8%.
Costa is therefore a difficult fighter to back at the short 1.40 moneyline. If Durden begins completing takedowns, the favourite may spend long periods unable to use the skill responsible for his price.
Costa’s clearest route is the finish. He needs to punish Durden during the entries or create enough damage before the wrestling begins accumulating.
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO at 3.00 is the more logical angle than the short moneyline.
The Early Betting Shortlist
These are not yet the final stakes. The complete unit allocation will appear separately in the UFC 329 Fight Card.
Strongest Method Bet
Max Holloway by KO/TKO at 1.86
McGregor remains dangerous early, but Holloway’s pace should become increasingly difficult to contain once the fight moves beyond the opening phase.
Best Value Underdog Method
Paddy Pimblett by decision at 5.50
Saint Denis owns the stronger raw control numbers. Paddy’s grappling makes those numbers far less straightforward to transfer into this matchup.
Best Bet Builder
Nikita Krylov to win and fight not to go the distance at 3.30
This covers Krylov’s striking and submission routes while preserving an attractive underdog price.
Best Decision Angle
Cory Sandhagen by decision at 2.70
Bautista should make the fight competitive, but Sandhagen has more ways to produce the cleaner moments across three rounds.
Best Secondary Finish Angle
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO at 1.86
The reach advantage, striking output and knockdown profile all favour Yanez if the fight develops into the boxing match Garbrandt often accepts.
Underdog Worth Watching
Kai Kamaka III by decision at 4.90
The sample on Riley remains small. Kamaka’s experience and wrestling give him a credible route to making the price look too wide.
Final Fight Lab Takeaways
The main event will be sold through memory, history and the possibility of another McGregor moment.
The bet has to be made on the fight that is likely to happen now.
McGregor’s early power cannot be dismissed, but Holloway’s pace and recent activity create a problem that should grow with every completed round. The KO/TKO market offers the clearest way to express that read.
Pimblett is the more interesting value position. Saint Denis’ pressure is real, but the assumption that he can reproduce his usual control against a grappler of Paddy’s quality is far from guaranteed. At 5.50, the decision price is large enough to accept the uncertainty.
Krylov provides the other major underdog opportunity. Whittaker is the cleaner and more accomplished striker, but this matchup will not necessarily be decided by clean striking alone. Krylov’s size, reach and grappling create the kind of fight Whittaker may find difficult to keep under control.
Sandhagen by decision and Yanez by KO/TKO complete the strongest early shortlist. Cortez by decision and Kamaka by decision deserve further consideration, but neither needs to be forced into the final card simply because the odds are attractive.
Several of the remaining fights contain very limited UFC data. That does not make them impossible to predict. It does mean they should be treated differently from matchups supported by deeper samples.
The aim is not to have a bet on every opinion.
The aim is to identify where the read is strong, where the market is wrong and where the price properly compensates us for the risk.
The final stakes, doubles and Hail Mary combinations will be published separately in the UFC 329 Fight Card.
Data and market note: Statistics are based on the supplied FX1 pre-fight dataset extracted on 9 July 2026. Per-minute, per-15-minute and control figures were recalculated from the supplied averages. Historical statistics are not opponent-adjusted. Bet365 prices were captured on 9 July 2026 and may change before bets are placed. Bet Builder prices are recorded directly from Bet365 rather than calculated by multiplying correlated markets.
Leave a Reply