Fight Lab went deeper on the five main-card fights. Picks keeps things simple.
The TOE Winner Model provides the percentage call. Fred adds the human read and predicted method.
Across UFC 331, the two agree on ten of the twelve winners. The biggest disagreement comes in the main event, where the Model strongly favours Joshua Van while Fred is backing Alexandre Pantoja to reclaim the flyweight title.
The other split comes at heavyweight, with the Model siding with Tai Tuivasa and Fred taking Robelis Despaigne.
UFC 331 Picks
| Fight | Model Pick (Win %) | Fred’s Pick | Fred’s Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja | Joshua Van (68.9%) | Alexandre Pantoja | Submission |
| Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy | Arman Tsarukyan (84.7%)* | Arman Tsarukyan | Decision |
| Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi | Dooho Choi (80.7%) | Dooho Choi | KO/TKO |
| Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski | Iwo Baraniewski (68.6%) | Iwo Baraniewski | KO/TKO |
| Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf | Gable Steveson (92.6%) | Gable Steveson | KO/TKO |
| Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain | Charles Jourdain (72.0%) | Charles Jourdain | Decision |
| Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne | Tai Tuivasa (57.9%) | Robelis Despaigne | KO/TKO |
| Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang Yoo | JooSang Yoo (55.3%) | JooSang Yoo | Decision |
| Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz | Ryan Gandra (69.0%) | Ryan Gandra | KO/TKO |
| Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira | Edmen Shahbazyan (57.7%) | Edmen Shahbazyan | KO/TKO |
| Casey O’Neill vs Eduarda Moura | Eduarda Moura (53.6%) | Eduarda Moura | Submission |
| Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito | Joanderson Brito (78.0%) | Joanderson Brito | Submission |
Van vs Pantoja: The Biggest Split
The Model has Joshua Van at 68.9%.
Fred takes Alexandre Pantoja.
Their first meeting lasted just 26 seconds before Pantoja suffered a freak elbow injury. It counts as a Van win, but it gave us almost nothing useful about the matchup itself.
Van has strengthened his case since then. His win over Tatsuro Taira showed he can survive long stretches of grappling pressure, stay composed and still take over late.
Pantoja remains a different kind of threat.
Van gave Taira opportunities during scrambles and escapes. Against Pantoja, one exposed back or badly timed stand-up could be enough to end the fight.
Van is improving quickly and the gap looks smaller than it did before their first meeting. Fred still trusts Pantoja’s grappling experience and submission threat more.
TOE MODEL: JOSHUA VAN 68.9%
FRED’S PICK: ALEXANDRE PANTOJA BY SUBMISSION
Tuivasa vs Despaigne: Model Against Matchup
The other winner disagreement is much further down the card.
The Model gives Tai Tuivasa 57.9%.
Fred takes Robelis Despaigne.
Tuivasa has far more UFC experience and has fought considerably stronger opposition. He also still carries enough power to punish any mistake.
The problem is where this fight is likely to take place.
Despaigne’s biggest questions remain around his grappling. Tuivasa has never built his game around exposing that kind of weakness. A striking fight instead puts him opposite a much taller, longer and faster heavyweight with serious knockout power.
That is the matchup Fred is betting the prediction on.
TOE MODEL: TAI TUIVASA 57.9%
FRED’S PICK: ROBELIS DESPAIGNE BY KO/TKO
Moura’s Grappling Gets the Call
The Model makes Eduarda Moura only a narrow favourite over Casey O’Neill at 53.6%.
Fred agrees on the winner but sees a stronger finishing route.
Moura’s recent record needs some context. The Denise Gomes loss has aged reasonably well given the level Gomes has reached since, while the Wang Cong fight showed how quickly Moura can change things once she gets sustained top position.
Against O’Neill, the plan should be obvious: get back to the grappling.
O’Neill has won twice since her submission loss to Ariane Lipski, but Moura is at her best when she can pressure into clinches, establish top control and start attacking the back.
Five of Moura’s professional wins have come by submission.
Fred thinks number six is live here.
TOE MODEL: EDUARDA MOURA 53.6%
FRED’S PICK: EDUARDA MOURA BY SUBMISSION
Method Calls Worth Watching
Joanderson Brito gets one of the stronger Model winner calls at 78.0% against Giga Chikadze.
Fred agrees on Brito but prefers the submission rather than the scorecards.
Chikadze is at his best when he gets room to kick and work at range. Brito has little reason to give him that kind of fight. Pressure, clinch work and grappling should be the priority.
FRED’S PICK: JOANDERSON BRITO BY SUBMISSION
Ryan Gandra comes in at 69.0% against Ozzy Diaz.
His recent fights have barely lasted long enough to develop, and the Model also sees the knockout as his clearest route.
Fred agrees.
FRED’S PICK: RYAN GANDRA BY KO/TKO
Edmen Shahbazyan against Brunno Ferreira is much tighter at 57.7%.
Both men are dangerous enough to make one bad exchange decisive. Fred slightly prefers Shahbazyan’s cleaner striking and variety.
FRED’S PICK: EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN BY KO/TKO
Main Card Calls
Arman Tsarukyan has the wrestling game to deny Mauricio Ruffy the fight he wants. Ruffy remains dangerous every second the fight stays at range, but Fred expects Tsarukyan to spend enough time pressuring, clinching and wrestling to take the decision.
FRED’S PICK: ARMAN TSARUKYAN BY DECISION
Dooho Choi brings better momentum into the Patricio Pitbull fight and should be able to force a pace that becomes increasingly difficult for the 38-year-old Brazilian.
FRED’S PICK: DOOHO CHOI BY KO/TKO
Iwo Baraniewski is 9-0 with nine first-round finishes. Alonzo Menifield represents his biggest veteran test yet, but Fred is not ready to bet against that finishing streak.
FRED’S PICK: IWO BARANIEWSKI BY KO/TKO
Gable Steveson carries the highest Model probability on the card at 92.6%. Sean Sharaf has heavyweight power, but Steveson has an enormous wrestling advantage available whenever he needs it.
FRED’S PICK: GABLE STEVESON BY KO/TKO
The Remaining Picks
Marlon Vera remains hard to finish, but Charles Jourdain should be able to win enough minutes through volume and activity.
FRED’S PICK: CHARLES JOURDAIN BY DECISION
Michael Aswell Jr. should make JooSang Yoo work for all fifteen minutes, but Fred slightly prefers Yoo’s cleaner offence.
FRED’S PICK: JOOSANG YOO BY DECISION
Final Word
Ten winner agreements. Two outright splits.
The Model takes Joshua Van. Fred takes Alexandre Pantoja.
The Model takes Tai Tuivasa. Fred takes Robelis Despaigne.
Everywhere else, the disagreement is about the route rather than the winner.
The headline call remains the boldest one on the card.
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA BY SUBMISSION.
Full breakdown of the 5 main event fights can be found in the latest Fight Lab article.
