Joaquin Buckley gets the main-event nod as the UFC returns to Rogers Place in Edmonton on Saturday 17 October. The call is Buckley by KO/TKO, with Erin Blanchfield by decision the strongest agreement between The Model and the final selections.
Across the card, ten of the thirteen winner picks match The Model. Landwehr, Cerminara and Chovancek are the exceptions, and all three come in matchups the numbers rate close to even. There are also different method calls for Daukaus, Jourdain and Diniz.
The deeper matchup analysis is in Fight Lab: Buckley vs Malott — No Easy Way In. Here is the full card.
Full Card Picks
| Fight | THE MODEL | EDGE PICK | METHOD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott | Buckley 61.5% | Buckley | KO/TKO |
| Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Blanchfield 86.7% | Blanchfield | Decision |
| Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez | Perez 67.9% | Perez | KO/TKO |
| Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus | Daukaus 72.7% | Daukaus | Decision |
| Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba | Jourdain 52.8% | Jourdain | KO/TKO |
| Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr | Nallo 50.6% | Landwehr | KO/TKO |
| Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz | Diniz 51.1% | Diniz | KO/TKO |
| Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti | Galanti 77.1% | Galanti | Submission |
| Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier | Faglier 61.9% | Faglier | KO/TKO |
| Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller | Stiller 51.8% | Cerminara | Decision |
| Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow | Koslow 67.9% | Koslow | Submission |
| Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler | Croden 81.3% | Croden | Decision |
| Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You | SuYoung You 53.2% | Chovancek | Decision |
Where The Edge Splits From The Model
Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr
THE MODEL: NALLO 50.6%
THE EDGE: LANDWEHR BY KO/TKO
The Model gives Nallo a 50.6% edge. The final pick is Landwehr by KO/TKO, narrowly, backing his pressure and the possibility that moving to lightweight helps him sustain it. Nallo’s own durability leaves an opening, but Landwehr’s three consecutive stoppage defeats make this a difficult pick to feel comfortable about.
Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller
THE MODEL: STILLER 51.8%
THE EDGE: CERMINARA BY DECISION
The Model narrowly favours Stiller at 51.8%. The final selection goes with Cerminara by decision. This is another small difference in a near-even model projection, not a strong statistical favourite being rejected.
Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You
THE MODEL: SuYOUNG 53.2%
THE EDGE: CHOVANCEK BY DECISION
The Model puts SuYoung You at 53.2%, while the final pick is Chovancek by decision. That completes the three winner splits, with none of the opposing model selections above 54%.
Same Winner, Different Method
Three other fights are worth flagging because the winner aligns while the expected finish does not.
METHOD SPLIT
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus
THE MODEL: DAUKAUS 72.7%
MODEL METHOD: SUBMISSION 38.8%
THE EDGE: DAUKAUS BY DECISION
Daukaus gets the winner call from both, but the finish is less convincing. The Model prefers submission, while The Edge expects his grappling and improved striking to win rounds without necessarily putting Barriault away. The Canadian’s toughness and resistance keep the decision in play.
METHOD SPLIT
Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba
THE MODEL: Jourdain 52.8%
MODEL METHOD: DECISION 47.0%
THE EDGE: JOURDAIN BY KO/TKO
The Model only narrowly favours Jourdain and leans towards the scorecards. The Edge backs his kicks, variety and range management to produce a stoppage if Cuamba spends too much time exchanging rather than wrestling. The more aggressive method call does not make this a comfortable winner selection.
METHOD SPLIT
Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz
THE MODEL: Diniz 51.1%
MODEL METHOD: DECISION 51.9%
THE EDGE: DINIZ BY KO/TKO
The Model barely separates the fighters and slightly favours a decision among Diniz’s projected wins. The Edge agrees on the winner but backs Diniz to finish Boser with strikes.
For the technical breakdowns of the five featured fights, head to Fight Lab. For everyone else’s predictions, there is Edge Games.
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