Natalia Silva and Wang Cong meet for the vacant women’s flyweight title at UFC 332 in Salt Lake City on Saturday, 3 October. Silva brings the stronger UFC résumé, but Wang has the striking variety to make this more complicated than another opponent chasing a moving target. Over five rounds, attacking Silva’s legs could become as important as finding her chin.

The main card produces three disagreements between the The Model and The Edge picks. Silva, King Green and Roman Kopylov receive the numerical nod; Wang, Esteban Ribovics and Ateba Gautier get the human vote. There is agreement on Payton Talbott and Roberto Soldic, although those selections come with different levels of conviction.

There should be plenty to argue about. Edge Games is where you can put your own calls alongside ours, whether you trust The Model, back The Edge or think both have misread the card.

NATALIA SILVA VS WANG CONG

Silva has earned her place here. Eight consecutive UFC victories, including wins over Jessica Andrade, Alexa Grasso and Rose Namajunas, represent a substantial body of work against increasingly accomplished opposition. Her speed and footwork have survived those tests, and Wang now has to solve a problem that three former champions could not.

The statistical contrast is useful without being decisive. Silva averages 4.81 significant strikes landed per minute, compared with 6.82 for Wang, while absorbing slightly less in return: 2.36 against 2.73. Those figures come from different opponents and different fights. They support Wang’s case for producing more offence, but they do not establish that she will be able to access that output against Silva’s movement.

SILVA’S ROUTE: MAKE WANG WORK FOR EVERY EXCHANGE

Silva should be looking to land, change position and make Wang build the next attack from scratch. Staying in front of her for a prolonged boxing exchange would surrender one of Silva’s most useful advantages. The challenge is to keep the movement productive: avoiding punches while conceding the cleaner offence is not enough to win a round.

Her kicks can help control both distance and tempo. Attacking the body when Wang sets her feet to punch would give Silva a worthwhile target without requiring her to remain in the pocket. However, the recovery is key. A kick that lands but leaves Silva square and within punching range could still produce a losing exchange. She needs to be ready for Wang’s return, particularly when operating closer to the fence. That relationship between range, movement and Wang’s pressure is central to UFC’s coaching breakdown of the fight. UFC

There is also room to interrupt Wang with a level change or clinch entry. That does not require Silva to become a different fighter or turn this into a wrestling contest. Even an occasional change of phase could prevent Wang from settling into consecutive striking exchanges. But Silva’s recorded takedown average of 0.43 per 15 minutes means sustained offensive wrestling should remain a possible adjustment, not an assumed escape route whenever the striking becomes difficult.

WANG’S ROUTE: ATTACK THE MOVEMENT

The strongest case for Wang starts below the waist. Her leg kicks are an established part of her offence, not a convenient addition to this week’s prediction: she landed 44 against Bruna Brasil and 38 against Ariane da Silva. Those performances offer a more useful starting point than presenting her exclusively as a boxer looking to close distance.

Against Silva, the objective should be to catch the leg when she plants to attack or settles after moving. Wang does not have to chase the head every time it leaves range. Finishing an exchange with a low kick, or changing the target to the body when Silva moves her head, would allow her to score while making the next exit less comfortable.

The positioning still has to be right. Reaching for kicks from too far away could give Silva opportunities to counter, while following her around the perimeter would waste energy without guaranteeing meaningful contact. Wang needs to limit an exit before committing to the combination, then remain balanced enough to attack again. The pressure becomes useful when Silva has fewer comfortable places to go, not simply because Wang is walking forwards.

That gives the five-round argument some substance. Repeated leg damage could reduce Silva’s mobility, leaving Wang more opportunities to extend combinations later. It does not require Silva to suddenly develop poor cardio. A fighter can remain well conditioned and still become easier to hit because the movement that protected her has been compromised.

Neither woman has previously headlined a UFC event, so the extra two rounds remain an unknown for both. Silva could make Wang spend the night closing distance without reward; Wang could make Silva work harder and harder to preserve it. There is no demonstrated UFC five-round advantage to fall back on.

The Model favours Silva, with a decision accounting for 55.3% of its projected Silva victories. The Edge Pick goes the other way. Wang’s leg kicks and sustained striking should help her maintain the more effective offence as the fight develops and secure at least three rounds. A late KO/TKO is a secondary possibility if Silva’s movement deteriorates badly, but the selection does not depend on her collapsing. The expectation is a close fight that Wang edges on the cards.

THE MODEL: NATALIA SILVA 67.7%
THE EDGE PICK: WANG CONG BY DECISION

DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VS PAYTON TALBOTT

Talbott’s defeat to Raoni Barcelos deserves context rather than being treated as a permanent mark against his potential. Barcelos was pulling ahead against Raul Rosas Jr. last weekend before the troubling fifth-round stoppage. The preceding rounds offered another reminder of how difficult an opponent he remains. Losing to him was not evidence that Talbott’s promise had been invented.

It was still a legitimate defeat, and Talbott’s own development is more important here than what Barcelos did subsequently. The win over Henry Cejudo provides encouraging evidence. Talbott landed takedowns of his own, returned to his feet when necessary and won 30–27 on all three scorecards. He did not need wrestling to disappear from the fight before he could perform well.

Figueiredo is moving in the opposite direction, with one victory in his last five appearances. The experience and finishing threats remain, but his recent results make it harder to trust him to control enough of a fight against an improving opponent.

KEEP FIGUEIREDO RESPONDING

Talbott’s best approach is to keep making Figueiredo deal with a busy jab and straight punches. Those attacks can establish distance without requiring an extended combination every time. When Figueiredo retreats, Talbott should advance behind them rather than rush into range and make the counter or takedown easier.

The end of each exchange is particularly important. Talbott should finish balanced, with enough space to recognise a level change. Landing several punches is not a good trade if the final one leaves him leaning forwards and allows Figueiredo to establish a prolonged grappling position.

For Figueiredo, the striking and grappling need to support each other. His nine career submission victories are a reminder that a powerful connection does not have to finish the fight by itself. It can force a defensive reaction, create contact and open a route to the back or neck. Talbott’s task is to stop those individual moments becoming the defining passages of the round.

That means treating the first defensive action seriously. Fighting for an underhook or preventing Figueiredo from locking his hands is less costly than allowing an established position and then attempting another athletic escape. Talbott has shown progress, but there is no reason to volunteer additional grappling tests.

Figueiredo’s toughness still makes a decision attractive, although he is not impossible to finish. Song Yadong submitted him in the second round of his last appearance. The argument for the scorecards is that Talbott can build a clear lead without forcing a stoppage, not that Figueiredo is incapable of being stopped.

There is agreement between The Model and The Edge Pick on Talbott, with decision the model’s leading method at 50.0% of projected Talbott wins. The read is that Talbott wins comfortably provided he spends most of the fight at striking range and prevents brief grappling exchanges from becoming long stretches of control. He does not need perfect takedown defence. He needs to return to his feet and get back to work.

THE MODEL: PAYTON TALBOTT 67.0%
THE EDGE PICK: PAYTON TALBOTT BY DECISION

KING GREEN VS ESTEBAN RIBOVICS

Green’s late-career revival is real. Four consecutive victories, including finishes of Daniel Zellhuber, Jeremy Stephens and Terrance McKinney, make it difficult to dismiss him as a fading name. At 40, he arrives with considerably better recent results than plenty of younger lightweights.

There is room to favour Ribovics without pretending that run has not happened. The question is whether Green can keep this fight operating in exchanges he can read and control, or whether Ribovics can make those exchanges longer and more demanding.

Green should have opportunities to punish Ribovics on the way in. Ribovics lands 7.43 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 5.74. His activity creates plenty of exchanges, and not all of them are clean. Green’s recorded absorption rate is substantially lower at 3.63, although those career figures cannot account fully for the different opposition and situations each man has faced.

CAN RIBOVICS DENY THE RESET?

The opening exchanges could suit Green. If Ribovics enters predictably, throws at the head and then pauses, Green can make the first attack miss and answer before the next one begins. Ribovics’s willingness to absorb punishment is not a substitute for getting into range responsibly.

The fight changes when Ribovics makes Green deal with several connected threats. A body shot after the head moves, another attack as Green resets, or a step that blocks the exit could extend the exchange beyond the part Green initially anticipated. Ribovics should be trying to make the defensive reads harder rather than simply throwing more punches at the same target.

That is how age could become relevant without turning the analysis into a birthday prediction. Green will not suddenly stop being sharp because he is 40. (As someone in his forties, I might just be kidding myself here.) Ribovics needs to make him defend repeatedly, deny easy breaks and land enough along the way that the reactions become less reliable.

Green can prevent that by keeping the exchanges short and refusing to let success lure him into unnecessary trades. Making Ribovics miss once is useful. Remaining in front of him to demonstrate that he can do it again is a different proposition.

There is finishing evidence behind Ribovics’s approach. He stopped Edson Barboza in the second round of his last appearance. That does not prove Green will follow the same pattern, but it supports a route that develops beyond an immediate opening-round breakthrough.

The Model barely separates them, giving Green a narrow preference and making decision 60.7% of his projected victories. The Edge Pick is Ribovics, with the expectation that he stays competitive through Green’s sharper early moments, keeps making him work and eventually finds a damaging opening. Green could bank a round first, but Ribovics is the call for a late KO/TKO. The danger to that prediction is Green keeping the fight sufficiently broken up that the pressure never accumulates.

THE MODEL: KING GREEN 51.4%
THE EDGE PICK: ESTEBAN RIBOVICS BY KO/TKO

ROBERTO SOLDIC VS KHAOS WILLIAMS

Soldic arrives with a substantial finishing record and an equally substantial question about inactivity. Eighteen of his 21 victories have come by knockout, but his UFC debut will be his first MMA appearance in 590 days. A professional boxing bout during that interval means he has not been completely inactive, although it cannot answer every question about his return to MMA.

Williams is a dangerous opponent to meet while finding that rhythm. He has nine career knockout victories and returned to winning form against Nikolay Veretennikov in May. His recorded striking numbers also suggest opportunities in both directions: 4.97 significant strikes landed per minute and 5.34 absorbed. Soldic should find openings, but Williams is capable of making an untidy exchange expensive.

THE OPENINGS WORK BOTH WAYS

Soldic’s last MMA fight captured both sides of that risk. Dagi Arslanaliev dropped him with an overhand right before Soldic recovered and knocked him out with a left hook as Arslanaliev attempted a body kick. It demonstrated how quickly Soldic can punish a commitment, but also showed that his own power does not prevent him from being hurt first.

Patience therefore looks valuable. Soldic can use less committed attacks to establish distance and encourage Williams to reveal his reactions before loading up. He does not have to create every opportunity through pressure. Making Williams commit and punishing the opening that follows could be just as productive.

The danger comes if an early connection persuades Soldic to abandon that discipline. Hurting Williams should not become a reason to rush into range with his feet trailing behind his punches. A controlled follow-up would leave him better prepared for the return than a chase built entirely around finding the finish.

Williams, in turn, should resist charging into the first counter opportunity. Measured pressure could test Soldic’s timing without immediately giving him the exchange he wants. Making Soldic defend, reset and respond to changes of target would be a more useful opening examination than a contest over who can throw the hardest first punch.

The model is considerably firmer on Soldic winning than on the method: KO/TKO represents 47.3% of its projected Soldic victories. It is the leading method, not an overwhelming forecast of a stoppage.

The Edge Pick follows The Model on the winner and takes Soldic by KO/TKO, although this is one of the lower-conviction selections among the five. Soldic’s finishing record and the openings Williams allows make the route credible. The inactivity and danger coming back prevent it from being a comfortable prediction.

THE MODEL: ROBERTO SOLDIC 70.5%
THE EDGE PICK: ROBERTO SOLDIC BY KO/TKO

ATEBA GAUTIER VS ROMAN KOPYLOV

This is the strongest disagreement between the model and The Edge pick. Gautier brings a ten-fight winning streak, nine career knockout victories and seven first-round finishes. He has already built a formidable finishing record, and the question now is how much of that threat Kopylov can take away.

The case for Gautier is not simply that he hits harder. His long, direct attacks give him a route to make Kopylov negotiate dangerous territory before reaching his own effective range. A purposeful jab could occupy the guard, disrupt an entry and allow Gautier to advance without launching himself across the gap.

That would be a better use of his advantages than rushing into extended combinations. If Gautier keeps his feet underneath him and makes Kopylov retreat in stages, he can remain ready to attack again. Overcommitting would give Kopylov a chance to counter while the younger fighter is recovering his stance.

KOPYLOV NEEDS MORE THAN SURVIVAL

Kopylov’s defence provides a genuine reason to favour Gautier’s approach. He absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute, and his recent defeats to Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodrigues showed that opponents can land enough to beat him on the scorecards. Experience alone is not going to make Gautier’s offence disappear.

For Kopylov, surviving the opening burst is only useful if he does something with the opportunities that follow. He needs to make Gautier miss without retreating all the way to the fence, then answer before the next attack begins. Body work and counters after Gautier’s combinations could make the younger fighter less comfortable maintaining his pressure.

The Pulyaev fight gives that argument some evidence. Gautier scored an immediate knockdown and landed the more damaging blows across the opening two rounds, but his pace slowed later and Pulyaev found more success. Gautier still completed the full fight and won, so it was not a collapse. It demonstrated that an opponent who survives can find a more competitive contest beyond the initial danger.

Kopylov therefore has a plausible route. The question is whether he can create those later opportunities without taking too much damage first. Waiting for Gautier to slow down while conceding clean connections would be a poor substitute for actively making him work.

For Gautier, the Pulyaev performance should reinforce the value of control. He does not need every attack to finish the fight. Making Kopylov defend a jab, retreat from a combination and reset under pressure can create the opening for the harder shot. The clinical version of Gautier is a more convincing pick than the version throwing everything into the first minute.

The Model favours Kopylov, with KO/TKO accounting for 50.5% of its projected Kopylov wins. The Edge Pick strongly disagrees on the winner, expecting Gautier’s direct attacks and finishing power to exploit the defensive openings before Kopylov establishes a consistent countering rhythm.

Gautier is also the leading candidate for the Edge Games confidence pick. It is the selection carrying the most conviction, but it still needs to survive the obvious test: what happens when the opponent remains standing after the first clean connection?

THE MODEL: ROMAN KOPYLOV 61.4%
THE EDGE PICK: ATEBA GAUTIER BY KO/TKO

THINK YOU CAN PICK THIS CARD BETTER?

The Edge Picks take Wang to solve Silva’s movement, Ribovics to catch Green late and Gautier to punch through The Model’s Kopylov selection. The Model disagrees with all three. That leaves plenty of room for someone else to get this card right.

Head to Edge Games and make your own winner and method picks, then choose where to use your confidence pick. Your card will be up against The Edge Picks, The Model and the rest of the community.

Convinced Silva is too slick for Wang? Think Kopylov is about to expose Gautier? Put it on your card. Calling the winner after the replay is the easy part.

MAKE YOUR UFC 332 PICKS IN EDGE GAMES BEFORE THEY LOCK.