Fight Lab does the digging. This is where the card gets locked.
The Model and The Edge agree on nine of Saturday’s 12 winners, but there are three meaningful splits. Christian Leroy Duncan, Matheus Camilo and Kai Kamaka III all get the nod from The Model, while The Edge goes the other way.
Method calls add another layer of disagreement, particularly with Francisco Prado and Leon Shahbazyan.
Full Card Picks
| Fight | THE MODEL | EDGE PICK | METHOD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan | Duncan 59.3% | Allen | Decision |
| Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert | Camilo 65.8% | Herbert | Decision |
| Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza | Godinez 67.7% | Godinez | Decision |
| Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III | Kamaka 64.4% | Fili | Decision |
| Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert | Walker 67.1% | Walker | KO/TKO |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi | Tanzilovi 50.2% | Tanzilovi | Decision |
| Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim | Prado 68.4% | Prado | KO/TKO |
| Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan | Shahbazyan 64.4% | Shahbazyan | Submission |
| Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro | Franco 71.6% | Franco | KO/TKO |
| Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris | Harris 67.6% | Harris | KO/TKO |
| Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova | Pereira 57.3% | Pereira | Decision |
| Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto | Gatto 62.8% | Gatto | Decision |
Where The Edge Splits From The Model
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan
THE MODEL: DUNCAN 59.3%
THE EDGE: ALLEN BY DECISION
The five-round format is the difference. Duncan should be dangerous early, but Allen’s experience, cardio and late grappling route shift the final read.
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
THE MODEL: CAMILO 65.8%
THE EDGE: HERBERT BY DECISION
Camilo has the wrestling advantage, but Herbert’s eight-inch reach advantage gives him an unusually large physical tool for keeping the fight in his preferred phase.
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III
THE MODEL: KAMAKA 64.4%
THE EDGE: FILI BY DECISION
This is the third winner flip on the card. The Model prefers Kamaka, but The Edge lands on Fili over 15 minutes.
Same Winner, Different Route
Two other fights are worth flagging because the winner aligns while the expected finish does not.
METHOD SPLIT
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
THE MODEL: PRADO 68.4%
MODEL METHOD: SUBMISSION 44.4%
THE EDGE: PRADO BY KO/TKO
The Model prefers Prado and leans submission. The Edge keeps Prado but goes KO/TKO, with Bonfim’s recent vulnerability and Prado’s return to lightweight nudging the method towards strikes.
METHOD SPLIT
Nico Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
THE MODEL: SHAHBAZYAN 64.4%
MODEL METHOD: KO/TKO 41.0%
THE EDGE: SHAHBAZYAN BY SUBMISSION
The Model backs Shahbazyan but leans towards a finish by strikes. The Edge agrees on the winner, but sees submission as the more likely route if Shahbazyan can hurt Price, force a scramble and capitalise on the opening.
YOUR TURN
MAKE YOUR READ
The card is locked. Now make yours.
